Modelling Flood Scenarios in Northeast Nigeria: Simulations, Vulnerabilities and Implications

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive assessment of flood vulnerability across the individual states of northeastern Nigeria, utilizing advanced methodologies such as Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The study's primary objectives involve pinpointing high-risk flood areas within each state and investigating the potential of flood simulations to bolster preparedness strategies. Drawing on high-resolution data from sources including the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Sentinel-2 imagery, and European Digital Archive of Soil Maps, the research leverages PCA to unveil distinct spatial patterns: the Yobe and Borno axis showcase significant variability, while the second principal component highlights notable differences in the Bauchi area. In contrast, the third principal component predominantly captures Adamawa, Gombe, and Taraba states, indicating comparatively lower variability. Notably, flood simulations based on Digital Elevation Models (DEM) faithfully replicate actual flood scenarios, effectively showcasing the viability of simulation techniques for enhancing flood preparedness. The findings spotlight Taraba State's heightened susceptibility due to its lower terrain, rendering it more prone to floods arising from an over-flooded River Benue. Consequently, the simulations underscore the criticality of proactive measures in mitigating flood risks within the region. In summation, this study underscores the effectiveness of integrating MCDA, AHP, PCA, and flood simulations in assessing and mitigating flood vulnerability. The resulting insights establish a knowledge base for informed decision-making, offering valuable support to policymakers and stakeholders in devising resilient flood management strategies for northeastern Nigeria's states.